Applied Digital Corporation Valuation Lab: What Is 1.41GW of Contracted Capacity Worth Per Share?

Lab / Price since the decision

Sell APLD NASDAQ

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Decision adjusted close

$22.44 Oct 13, 2026

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Date	adjusted close	Change
Oct 13, 2026	$22.44	—

2026-10-13 $22.44

This Lab turns the central question in the Applied Digital Corporation research in both directions. It does not treat 1.41GW as value; it follows the route through rent, NOI, construction cost, capital claims, and common equity.

The decision is Sell. This is not a claim that the underlying business is poor; it is a judgment that the market price already requires substantially better execution and additional NAV than the preliminary Base case. The chart above updates only with closes after this decision.

THE ARCHIVE / VALUATION LAB

Applied Digital Corporation Valuation Lab

Change the assumptions behind 1.41GW of contracted capacity and trace what remains for common shareholders after capital claims.

Bear$0.00

Base$5.02

Bull$26.18

Market price$22.442026-10-13

SimpleAdvanced / Reverse

01 / ASSUMPTIONS

NOI margin

86%

Residual CAPEX / MW

$12M

Discount rate

8.5%

Reletting NOI retention

85%

02 / EQUITY BRIDGE

Contracted minimum rent

$35.73B

Base rent (Q1)

$65.8M

HPC NOI (Q1)

$58.8M

Construction and capital claims

Requires project-level verification

Scenario signal

Base assumptions remain below market

This Lab separates disclosed contracts from author assumptions. Because project CAPEX and cash distributions are not fully public, slider output is a sensitivity signal—not a price target.

03 / REVERSE VALUATION

What else must be true to support the market price?

The provisional Base case implies meaningful additional project NAV, lower capital cost, or lower residual CAPEX.

Sources: Applied Digital FY2027 Q1 10-Q and earnings materials. Base rent (65.8M) and tenant build services (183.5M) are deliberately separated. Educational research tool, not investment advice.

How to use it

In Simple mode, move one variable at a time. Raising residual CAPEX from $12M/MW to $13M/MW is often more informative than changing a terminal multiple: a small shift across a large development footprint can erase much of the residual common-equity claim.

In Advanced / Reverse mode, additional contracted MW represents an assumed positive-NPV project, not announced capacity. Explaining a market price with one variable is different from explaining it with a combination of lower CAPEX, lower discount rates, stronger re-letting, and incremental MW.

The model boundary

The Lab does not present an arbitrary annual allocation of the disclosed “thereafter” rent as fact. Nor does it claim to have reconstructed every contractual cash distribution for Macquarie rights, NCI, convertibles, warrants, and other senior claims. False precision would be worse than an explicit uncertainty.

Its practical purpose is narrow: make visible what must improve beyond contract size for value to reach common shareholders.