Sterling Infrastructure Valuation Lab: The Growth Implied by Today’s Price

Lab / Price since the decision

Sell STRL NASDAQ

Loading the latest close

The decision close is below. Prices after it load when this page opens, and only after that session has finished.

Decision adjusted close

$564.00 Oct 6, 2026

Latest adjusted close

— Last completed close

Later closes

—after the decision date

Move across the chart, or focus it and use the arrow keys. The figure at the top always stays on the latest close.

Adjusted close. Splits and dividends are in the price series. Trading costs, taxes, and position size are not. This is not an account return and not a recommendation. Yahoo Finance

Closes by date

STRL adjusted close. Change is versus the decision close.

Date	adjusted close	Change
Oct 6, 2026	$564.00	—

2026-10-06 $564.00

This page turns the Sterling Infrastructure analysis into a two-way model. Enter growth to get fair value, or start from the market price and solve for the growth that price requires.

The defaults reproduce the article’s Base case. E-Infrastructure grows 20% annually from the author-estimated 2026 starting point, the other businesses grow 2%, and adjusted EBITDA margin reaches 21.5% in 2030. A 24x exit P/E and 10% required return produce a present value of about $568. These are author assumptions, not company guidance.

Read fair value and implied growth together

THE ARCHIVE / VALUATION LAB

Sterling Infrastructure Valuation Lab

Enter growth to calculate fair value, then reverse the model to see what growth the current price requires.

Forward + reverse solve

Quick startBearBaseBullReset

Present fair value$5682030 price discounted to today

Versus current price+0.7%$563.69 · 2026-10-06

2030 adjusted EPS$35.412030 $850

20% MOS price$454From selected fair value

MARKET-IMPLIED GROWTH

E-Infrastructure growth required by today’s price

19.7%

19.7% annually with the other Base assumptions and a 24x exit P/E

01 / ASSUMPTIONS

Change growth, margin, and multiple

E-Infrastructure CAGR

20.0%

Other-segment CAGR

2.0%

Adjusted EBITDA margin

21.5%

2030 exit P/E

24.0×

Required return

10.0%

Advanced depreciation, tax, and share assumptions

Depreciation / revenue

1.8%

Tax rate

25.0%

Diluted shares

31.1M

02 / EARNINGS BRIDGE

From revenue to adjusted EPS

E-Infrastructure

$6.37B

Other revenue

$1.09B

Total revenue

$7.45B

Adjusted EBITDA

$1.60B

Depreciation

−$0.13B

Adjusted net income / EPS

$1.10B / $$35.41

Net interest income is held at zero.

03 / GROWTH × MARGIN

Present value across growth and EBITDA margin

All other assumptions stay at their selected values. The dot marks the nearest cell.

Present value per share by E-Infrastructure growth and EBITDA margin

CAGR margin	18.5%	20.0%	21.5%	23.0%	24.5%

>10% below priceWithin ±10%>10% above price

04 / PRICE REQUIREMENT

What today’s price requires in 2030

Required 2030 price$844

Required adjusted EPS$35.2

Selected exit P/E24.0×

Educational scenario calculator · This is not a probability simulation or investment advice. It starts from the midpoint of 2026 guidance and an author-estimated segment split. The current price is the October 6, 2026 close.

Why reverse-solving matters

The fact that the data-center market is growing does not prove the stock is cheap. A good business can offer a low expected return if the share price already discounts fast growth and strong margins.

The forward model shows the value produced by selected assumptions. The reverse model changes the question: To earn 10% annually from today’s price, what EPS must Sterling produce in 2030, and how fast must E-Infrastructure grow to produce it?

Model mechanics

The two revenue pools compound separately for four years from their estimated 2026 starting points.

$$Revenue_{2030}=3.07(1+g_E)^4+1.005(1+g_O)^4$$

The model applies the selected EBITDA margin, subtracts depreciation, and applies tax to calculate adjusted EPS. Net interest income is held at zero.

$$Adjusted\ EPS=\frac{(Revenue\times EBITDA\ Margin-Depreciation)(1-Tax)}{Shares}$$

A bisection solver finds the E-Infrastructure CAGR that makes present value equal the $563.69 market price. That result is not the market’s single expectation. The same price can be explained by lower growth and a higher multiple, or higher growth and a lower multiple. The sensitivity table makes those trade-offs visible.

What this model does not answer

• Future acquisitions and their dilution or debt financing
• Different margins for site development and electrical work inside E-Infrastructure
• Customer concentration, project delays, and power-interconnection timing
• The exact timing of backlog conversion into revenue
• The data-center construction cycle beyond 2030

The point is to separate “it grows” from “it is cheap.” Start with the growth required by the current price, then judge whether that number is plausible given Sterling’s capacity and execution.

Disclosure: This tool documents a personal investment-research process and is not investment advice. Fair value and implied growth are author estimates based on assumptions, and actual outcomes may differ materially.