What Is the Poisson Distribution?
A Chuseok chicken stockout, demand, and inventory
A café queue and a Chuseok chicken stockout explain Poisson demand, stockout probability, expected lost sales, and inventory decisions.
Read article ↗Topics / Knowledge hub
Supply Chain
Procurement, capacity, logistics, and supply-chain decisions.
Foundation
What is multi-objective optimization?
Real decisions rarely have one goal
When cost, carbon, recycled content, and supply reliability collide, how do you decide? An EV battery procurement case I worked through.
Read article ↗Research
Bloom Energy: An AI Power Bottleneck Winner, but How Much Success Is Already Priced In?
A closer look at the Oracle agreement, SOFC economics, competitive moats, and the valuation implied by Bloom Energy’s AI power boom.
Bloom Energy’s AI-power opportunity is real. We test contracts, cash flow, dilution, and the value that can reach common shareholders.
Read article ↗Huntington Ingalls Industries: Why Does a Monopoly Shipbuilder With $57 Billion of Orders Trade at 14×?
The market is not doubting HII's orders. It is doubting how profitably those orders become ships.
A valuation of Huntington Ingalls Industries through backlog conversion, shipbuilding productivity, normalized margin, and 2030 scenarios.
Read article ↗Sterling Infrastructure: Time to Sell? A Good Company, but About Fair Value Now
The business thesis is intact. The October 6 close is about the base-case present value.
Sterling's edge is the capacity to build when customers need it. The October 6 close of $564 is about the base case discounted at 10%.
Read article ↗Implementation
Bloom Energy Valuation Lab: How Many Gigawatts Must Bloom Deliver to Justify Today’s Price?
Change delivered GW, equipment revenue per MW, margins, dilution, and discounting to test the combination implied by the market price.
An interactive FCFF model that separates Bloom Energy’s announced contracts and financing frameworks from common-equity value.
Read article ↗Huntington Ingalls Industries Valuation Lab: Stress-Test the 7.5% Margin
Move shipbuilding margin, growth, and the exit multiple to recalculate HII’s 2030 present value.
Change Huntington Ingalls Industries' shipbuilding margin, growth, exit P/E, and required return to recalculate 2030 EPS and present fair value.
Read article ↗Sterling Infrastructure Valuation Lab: The Growth Implied by Today’s Price
Move E-Infrastructure growth and EBITDA margin, then reverse-solve the growth embedded in the market price.
Change Sterling Infrastructure growth, EBITDA margin, and exit multiple to calculate 2030 fair value and the growth implied by today’s price.
Read article ↗Poisson Demand and Inventory Simulator
From average order rates to stockout risk and inventory decisions
Change Poisson demand, inventory, service level, and shortage-versus-leftover costs to compare stockout risk and inventory rules.
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